European leaders brace for potential Trump reaction to midterm losses
Brussels officials warn that a bruised president facing congressional deadlock may shift focus to foreign policy disputes.
By James Anderson ·
European Commission officials in Brussels have spent weeks privately warning colleagues that Donald Trump’s likely defeat in the U.S. midterm elections could trigger a volatile foreign policy response. The election results, which saw Democrats retake control of Congress, create a legislative deadlock that limits the president’s ability to pass domestic bills. However, that constraint leaves him with significant latitude to act on international matters.
Senior officials in Brussels fear the electoral setback will leave Trump bruised and seeking a fight elsewhere. They anticipate he may direct his energy toward the war in Iran or the ongoing support for Ukraine. The administration has already shown a willingness to use trade and military aid as tools of pressure. A fresh dispute with the European Union remains a likely outcome if domestic options dry up.
U.S. support for Ukraine is already waning, and relations between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy have reached a new low. Ukraine relies on U.S. military intelligence to select Russian battlefield targets. It also depends on a supply of Patriot air defense interceptor missiles, which European allies are currently paying for. This dependency gives Trump leverage to pressure Zelenskiy during peace negotiations with Moscow.
The trade relationship remains a central point of tension. Last year, European leaders and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen spent considerable political capital to de-escalate a trade war. Brussels agreed to a 15 percent tariff on EU goods sold to the U.S. to stabilize relations. That front has been quiet since the deal, but recent court setbacks have forced the Trump administration to find new legal grounds for import taxes.
The cost of living, driven up by the tariff agenda and the energy crisis, featured prominently in the recent midterm races. Trump had blamed Ukraine’s strikes on Russian oil refineries for soaring energy prices following the Iran war’s impact on the Strait of Hormuz. This domestic economic pain may act as a restraining force, preventing a frustrated Trump from immediately reaching for his favorite tariff cudgel.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, a vocal critic of Trump, said U.S. voters had turned away from the politics of hate and machismo. He described the defeated policies as ones that only make people poorer. Other European leaders are keeping a low profile. They are observing the results closely, guessing at what the new congressional balance means for the second half of Trump’s second term.
