Poll: 44% of Americans say finances unchanged, 38% worse

COLUMBUS, Ohio. A recent survey indicates that the financial health of American households has become a central issue in the upcoming midterm elections. The data suggests that while some segments of the population are seeing gains, the majority of voters feel their economic standing has either stayed flat or slipped further into the red.

The latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found that 44 percent of respondents said their personal finances have mostly remained the same. Another 38 percent reported that their economic situations have worsened. Only 15 percent said their money situation has actually improved. These figures align with a broader trend where voters are blaming the administration for rising prices on goods and energy, particularly following the war with Iran and the implementation of new tariffs.

President Trump, who won the 2024 election largely on a promise to lower prices, is now facing record-low approval ratings. His party is expected to face a challenging year in the midterms. Historical data shows that since World War II, a president's party has gained seats in the House only twice during midterm elections. On average, the ruling party loses 26 seats in these years. When a president's approval rating drops below 50 percent, as Trump's currently has, the average loss increases to 35 seats.

Democrats have performed well in recent special elections and off-year contests, giving them a favorable position heading into the general election. They are favored to win control of the House and are in close contention for the Senate. However, structural factors limit their potential gains. There are approximately 30 fewer competitive districts this year than in 2018, when Democrats gained more than 40 seats. Additionally, mid-decade redistricting gave Republicans an estimated eight-seat advantage, a margin that may be reduced if Latino voters in South Texas turn out in high numbers.

The political environment is also shaped by voter sentiment toward specific policies. Disapproval of hard-line immigration enforcement, cuts to Medicaid, and reductions in government workforce size are angering swing voters. This discontent is firing up Democratic supporters, while Republicans struggle with the fact that their party is not viewed favorably by a large portion of the electorate. Self-identified democratic socialists are highly engaged in this cycle, with 44 percent of poll respondents stating their vote is primarily a vote against Trump, compared to 21 percent who said it is a vote for him.

Election night results may take days or weeks to finalize in key Senate races. Trump has already begun laying the groundwork for claims of rigged elections, a pattern he has followed after previous contests. While most voters across parties believe their states will run fair elections, a quarter of Republicans said their candidate likely should not accept the results if the race is close. This potential for post-election chaos adds a layer of uncertainty to a cycle where Republican turnout in red states will be the deciding factor for Senate control.