Poll shows Democrats leading in Ohio midterms despite structural hurdles

A new national poll released Monday places Democrats in the lead for control of the U.S. House, though the margin suggests a narrower path to victory than some projected. The survey, conducted by Marist College for NPR and PBS News, found that Democrats hold an eight-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot among likely voters. Among registered voters, that gap widens to ten points.

The data was gathered from 1,289 registered voters on Oct. 19 and 20. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for likely voters and 3.7 points for registered voters. This marks the first survey in the current cycle where Marist applied a likely voter screen. The methodology attempts to identify respondents most likely to cast ballots based on voting history and enthusiasm levels.

President Donald Trump faces low approval ratings across the electorate. Only 38% of registered voters approve of his job performance, while 61% disapprove. Among likely voters, the split is 40% approval and 59% disapproval. Fifty-three percent of both groups said they strongly disapprove of the president’s work, a figure tied for the highest recorded in the poll's history.

Despite the lead, Democrats face structural challenges created by recent redistricting. Maps drawn after the 2020 Census and subsequent mid-decade changes have tilted congressional districts in favor of Republicans. Historically, when Democrats have held similar leads on the congressional ballot, they have flipped at least 30 seats. However, the current map landscape makes that threshold harder to reach.

Voter enthusiasm remains a differentiator. Democratic likely voters are 71% very enthusiastic about voting, compared to 61% of Republican likely voters. That is a 10-point gap. However, key Democratic demographics show lower energy. Only 42% of likely voters under 45 are very enthusiastic. The figure is 53% for non-white voters and 56% for white women with college degrees.

Republican enthusiasm is concentrated among specific groups. Sixty-eight percent of MAGA voters report being very enthusiastic, along with 66% of white women without degrees and 61% of white evangelical voters. Among independents, 48% are very enthusiastic. The gap in close attention to the election has also narrowed. Last month, 42% of Democrats and 34% of Republicans said they were following the race very closely. In the current poll, the numbers are nearly equal, with 46% of Democrats and 45% of Republicans paying close attention.

The cost of living remains the primary concern for voters. One-third of respondents reported experiencing financial hardship in the past year, and 38% said their personal finances have worsened. Shun Maurice, a 47-year-old independent from Arizona, cited high food and gas prices as a major strain. "They're too expensive for everybody, no matter who you voted for," Maurice said.

Issues related to democracy and immigration are also driving votes. Preserving democracy resonates with Democrats and independents, while immigration is the top concern for self-described MAGA supporters. Chris Agan, a 43-year-old Democrat in Tyler, Texas, said this year feels like a referendum against the party in power. "I think Talarico embodies that realization that there needs to be change," Agan said, referring to the U.S. Senate race in Texas.

Confidence in election administration is high but uneven. Three-quarters of likely voters are confident that state and local governments will run a fair and accurate election. Democrats show the highest confidence at 88%, followed by independents at 75% and Republicans at 68%. MAGA supporters are nearly 30 points less likely than Democrats to trust the process. A quarter of Republicans said their preferred candidate should probably or definitely challenge the results.

The poll highlights divisions on other policy fronts as well. Six in ten likely voters believe new data centers will have a negative impact on the country. Sixty-six percent oppose the construction of a data center in their own community. On immigration, 61% support legal pathways for immigrants who meet certain requirements, while two-thirds of Republicans say such immigrants should be required to leave. The next major data release is scheduled for the week of Nov. 2.