Talarico Projected to Flip Texas Senate Seat in Costly Race

The Texas Senate race concluded as the most expensive in the state's history, with total spending topping a figure that was not specified in the source data but noted as a record high by mid-October. CBS News projected that Democrat James Talarico will defeat Republican Ken Paxton, securing a major legislative flip for the Democratic Party.

Talarico, 37, is a former teacher and Presbyterian seminarian. He ran on a platform focused on fighting corruption and lowering costs. His opponent, Paxton, 63, currently serves as the state attorney general. The contest represented the first realistic opportunity for Democrats to win a Senate seat in Texas since 1988.

Paxton secured the Republican nomination in a runoff that defeated incumbent Senator John Cornyn. Cornyn had represented Texas since 2002 but lost the primary with the support of a last-minute endorsement from President Trump. Following the primary, Democratic prospects improved as Paxton faced scrutiny over personal controversies and conservative positions. Many Republicans expressed concern that millions of dollars would be required to retain the seat.

Paxton was impeached by the state House in 2023 on charges of bribery, obstruction of justice, and abuse of the public trust. The state Senate later acquitted him. Campaign reporting during the general election highlighted additional personal issues, including a New Year's Eve party in Dubai in 2024 attended by two U.S. fugitives and a woman who was not his wife. The Paxton campaign described these reports as political persecution without denying the events.

The Republican campaign targeted Talarico as too extreme for Texas. They cited past comments on veganism and gender, which Talarico later called "cringey." Republicans also questioned Talarico's whereabouts after he left the campaign trail for over a week last month to recover from the flu. His campaign shared video evidence showing him at his Texas home during that period, which appeared to quell the speculation.

Talarico's projected win gives Democrats a key victory as they seek to take control of the Senate.