Texas Senate race narrows in rural counties as spending hits $573 million

The margin of victory in the Texas Senate race has tightened, with recent data showing the contest is nearly a dead heat. This development changes the outlook for a state that has historically voted Republican in down-ballot races. The narrowing gap has intensified the final push by both campaigns to reach voters in the state's interior regions.

The race between state Attorney General Ken Paxton and state Representative James Talarico has consumed $573 million, according to Ad Impact. This figure places the contest on track to become the most expensive non-presidential political race in United States history. The financial influx has flooded the state with television advertising, a strategy designed to reach voters across Texas's vast geographic expanse.

The contest began with Talarico holding a lead of up to six points in various polls. That advantage has eroded in recent days. A release from Texas Southern University now shows Talarico leading by only two points, 49 percent to 47 percent. The Talarico campaign acknowledged that its internal polling may not have fully accounted for the steadfast support of traditional Republican voters in rural areas.

Paxton has positioned himself as the defender of traditional Texas values. At a rally in Cullen Yards near Fort Worth on Saturday, he criticized Talarico as a radical Democrat. Paxton, who has sued the Biden administration more than 100 times during his tenure as attorney general, argued that Talarico's plan for the state's finances excludes ordinary residents. He described Talarico as a vegan and a Democratic socialist, comparing him to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani.

Talarico has responded by labeling Paxton the most corrupt politician in Texas history. He has framed the election as a battle against billionaire mega-donors and corporate special interests. Elon Musk, who has spent $168 million to boost Paxton's campaign, has weighed in on the race through his social media platform. Musk recently posted that Talarico would vote to trans kids, adding to the digital pressure on the Democrat.

Archer City, a farming community with a population of 1,600, illustrates the political landscape in the state's interior. The town sits in Archer County, which has voted heavily for Republican candidates in recent presidential elections. In 2016, 88 percent of the county's votes went to Donald Trump. That figure rose to 89.5 percent in 2020 and reached 90 percent in 2024. Local residents describe the area as deeply Republican, a stance that predates Trump's rise to national prominence.

The town is also known for its connection to author Larry McMurtry, who died in 2021. He left behind a collection of approximately 400,000 books, which volunteers have opened to the public through Booked Up Inc. The library has become a destination for collectors, including a customer from Lubbock who recently found a first edition of a novel by Alexander Theroux. The presence of this literary hub contrasts with the town's identity as an oil and farming heartland.

Election day is approaching as early voting concludes. Approximately 7.8 million Texans have already cast their ballots in the early voting period. The remaining votes will be counted on election day, when voters in rural counties like Archer are expected to head to their local polling places. The final tally will determine whether the Senate seat remains with the Republicans or falls to the Democrats.

The race has been defined by sharp contrasts in messaging. Paxton's supporters view Talarico as an establishment figure masquerading as a centrist. Talarico's camp paints Paxton as an outlier in a modern political landscape, citing his informal style and personal history. Both candidates continue to court voters in the days leading up to the final count.