AIB lifts 2026 loan growth forecast as new lending surges

Dublin-based AIB has raised its financial outlook for 2026 after new lending grew sharply in the first nine months of the year. The bank issued a trading update on November 4, 2026, showing that total income increased by 3 percent in the period ending September 30. Net interest income reached €2.87 billion, a 2 percent increase over the same period in 2025. Other income rose by 7 percent during the timeframe.

Gross lending at AIB expanded by €4 billion to €76.3 billion since the end of the previous year. This represents a 5.6 percent increase in total loans. New lending specifically climbed 17 percent to reach €12.3 billion. That figure included €3.2 billion in Irish mortgages, which were up 4 percent from the prior year. The bank had previously predicted that customer loans would grow by about 5 percent in 2026. The updated forecast now places that growth between 5 and 6 percent.

AIB also adjusted its net interest income projection for the full year. The bank now expects that figure to exceed €3.85 billion, up from a previous estimate of more than €3.8 billion. This change reflects rate assumptions for December 2026. The bank assumed a European Central Bank deposit rate of 2.5 percent and a Bank of England rate of 4 percent for that date. Customer deposits rose 2.7 percent to €120.4 billion during the first three quarters.

Operating costs for the bank increased by 3 percent in the nine-month period. The cost-to-income ratio stood at 44 percent. The rise in expenses was partly due to salary inflation. However, this was partially offset by a reduction in staff numbers. Average employee counts fell 3 percent year on year, dropping from 10,351 to 10,017 by the end of September 2026.

Colin Hunt, the chief executive of AIB, stated that the update confirmed the bank had another strong quarter. He noted that the results reflected the resilience of the Irish economy. Hunt said the bank’s disciplined approach and strong capital position allow it to support its 3.5 million customers. He added that the bank remains focused on sustainable growth as it enters the final months of its current strategic cycle.

The bank plans to update investors on its next strategic plan, which will run through 2030, in March 2027. AIB has maintained its guidance for costs to increase by around 2 percent this year. It also expects a return on tangible equity of above 20 percent. Other income is projected to be close to €800 million. The bank holds a 28.4 percent share of Ireland’s mortgage market. Green mortgages accounted for 61 percent of new mortgage lending this year.