Israel's 640,000 New Voters May Tip Balance in Knesset Race

Israelis will head to the polls on Tuesday, Oct. 27, for a national election where a specific demographic may hold outsized influence. The Israel Democracy Institute, known as the IDI, estimates that 640,000 citizens aged 18 to 22 are eligible to vote. This group represents nearly 10% of the total electorate. The institute projects that their collective choices could determine the outcome for as many as 12 seats in the 120-member Knesset.

Yael Chernyvsky, an 18-year-old from Ramat Hasharon, spoke at a recent event in Tel Aviv attended by more than 1,000 first-time voters. Many of the attendees were in pre-military service programs. Chernyvsky, who is currently in an army preparation program in the Negev, said she is voting to change the country's future. She has not selected a final party but said she will likely support either the Democrats, led by Yair Golan, or Yashar, led by Gadi Eisenkot. Both parties are part of the opposition change bloc, which seeks to remove Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from power. Netanyahu has served continuously since 2009, with a short break between 2021 and 2022.

Tammy Hoffman, head of the education policy program at the IDI, noted that Israel has a high birth rate and a young population. She stated that if turnout remains high, as her institute's research suggests, these new voters will significantly impact the result. The IDI co-sponsored the Tel Aviv event with the Yigal Allon Center. Hoffman explained that these young people lived through the judicial reform protests and the events of Oct. 7 while in school. She added that national security and the cost of life are the top concerns for both Jewish and Arab youth.

Survey data from May indicated that 80% to 95% of prospective first-time Jewish and Arab voters said they would definitely or probably vote. Secular Jewish youth showed the highest certainty, while 87% of Arab respondents intended to vote. A separate poll for Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth found that 67% of young respondents were certain they would vote, and another 19% thought they would. By comparison, youth turnout in the 2024 US presidential election was 47%, according to the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement.

Political leanings among this group are mixed. An N12 poll conducted on Sept. 23 found that 74% of young people described their views as right-wing or center-right, while 23% identified as left-wing or center-left. In that poll, 16% planned to vote for Eisenkot's Yashar and 14% for Netanyahu's Likud. Hoffman noted that mock elections in high schools showed strong support for Yashar and Beyachad, a party led by former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, with less support for Itamar Ben-Gvir's far-right party.

Individual motivations vary widely. Omer Gross, an 18-year-old in an army-prep program in the Golan, plans to vote for the Religious Zionist party. He supports the party's West Bank policies despite disagreeing with its Gaza approach. Tomer Shiloh, also 18 and from Herzeliyah, will vote for the change bloc. He wants the next government to mandate military service for ultra-Orthodox men and to lower living costs. Sgt. M, a 22-year-old reservist, is voting for the Democrats primarily on economic grounds, citing the high cost of tuition, books, food, and housing. Khalel Alaa Sabeh, an 18-year-old from Shef-Amra, wants an Arab party that closes resource gaps and tackles crime. He said he will stay in the country regardless of the result.

The IDI co-sponsored the Tel Aviv event with the Yigal Allon Center. Hoffman said the institute's research suggests high turnout among this demographic. She stated that first-time voters will make a difference if they show up in large numbers. The election takes place on Oct. 27. The Knesset consists of 120 members. The IDI estimates 640,000 first-time voters are eligible. Their choices could decide up to 12 seats.