Israeli Election Deadlock Leaves Netanyahu and Eisenkot Without Majority

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot both failed to secure the 61 seats necessary to form a government in Israel's 120-seat parliament following the recent election. The final results show that opposition parties hold more seats than Netanyahu's right-wing bloc, yet Eisenkot cannot reach a majority without the support of predominantly Arab parties, an alliance his allies ruled out during the campaign. Netanyahu's Likud party received the most votes, but his coalition of right-wing, far-right, and ultra-Orthodox partners still falls short of the required threshold.

The path to a new government begins in the coming days when Israel's president consults with leaders from every elected party. Each party will recommend a candidate it believes is best positioned to assemble a coalition. The president is not required to choose the leader of the largest party but will select the candidate deemed most likely to succeed. The chosen leader receives 28 days to secure support from at least 61 lawmakers, with a possible extension of up to 14 days. If this effort fails, the president may task another candidate with the task.

Eisenkot appears more likely than Netanyahu to receive the initial mandate to form a government based on current recommendations from lawmakers. However, his political bloc lacks a majority without Arab-led parties, which represent 21% of the population. Eisenkot has stated that these parties' positions on Hamas and the war in Gaza prevent him from governing with them, citing their refusal to fully endorse the military goal of eliminating Hamas. Netanyahu faces a similar hurdle, as his traditional coalition partners do not have enough seats to return him to power without new alignments.

One potential outcome is a unity government combining Netanyahu and Eisenkot. Israeli and U.S. media outlets have reported that President Trump favors this arrangement, which would likely include moderate parties from the political center and right. Such a coalition could facilitate cooperation with the Trump administration on regional priorities, including Gaza reconstruction and potential normalization with Saudi Arabia. Eisenkot has repeatedly pledged not to serve under Netanyahu, and the two leaders must resolve whether the prime ministerial role would rotate between them.

A second possibility involves an Eisenkot government supported by Arab parties, which would command a majority of more than 67 seats. This scenario remains unlikely because Eisenkot and his allies have rejected it during the campaign. Arab parties could support the government from outside the coalition, but this arrangement contradicts prior promises. A third option is another election, a move the president has urged leaders to avoid after the recent vote drew the highest turnout in decades. Netanyahu may favor a repeat election, believing that declining Arab turnout and fewer overseas liberal voters would work in his favor.

A fourth possibility requires one bloc to persuade roughly eight to 13 lawmakers from the opposing camp to defect, a difficult task under current results. During the stalemate, a parliamentary majority opposed to Netanyahu could advance legislation with support from Arab lawmakers. Eisenkot's bloc is considering replacing the speaker of the Knesset and passing a state commission of inquiry into the events preceding the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack. They also hope to reverse legislation that critics say weakened democratic institutions and judicial independence.

The potential for a renewed war with Iran adds pressure to the negotiations. Netanyahu stated on election night that Israel must complete its mission against Iran to remove an existential threat. Eisenkot warned Netanyahu not to use Israel's security for political needs. Danny Citrinowicz, an Israeli analyst on Iran, noted that Netanyahu has an incentive to renew fighting while a government is being formed. He said that an emergency would increase pressure on Eisenkot to enter a unity government, a dynamic similar to the period following the October 7 attack when Eisenkot joined the emergency cabinet before resigning eight months later.