Netanyahu Leads After Israeli Election

Binyamin Netanyahu’s Likud party emerged as the largest faction in the Israeli Knesset after the recent election, winning 27 seats. The Yashar party followed with 21 seats. Neither the far-right coalition led by Netanyahu nor the opposition bloc secured the 61 seats required to form a standalone government. This result leaves the path to a new cabinet open to prolonged negotiations, during which Netanyahu will continue to serve as prime minister.

The election results stand in contrast to the challenges Netanyahu has faced since the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023. That attack killed 1,200 people in Israel and triggered a hostage crisis that prompted hundreds of thousands of citizens to demand a ceasefire. The subsequent wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran have added to the strain. At least 73,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since the fighting began. Netanyahu’s corruption trial has continued during this period, though the wars have interrupted it rather than ended it.

International scrutiny has increased as well. The International Criminal Court has issued a warrant for Netanyahu over war crimes, limiting his ability to travel. Israel is currently on trial for genocide at the International Court of Justice. Netanyahu and the Israeli government have denied these charges, labeling them as anti-Semitic. Despite these pressures, the former spokesman Aviv Bushinsky described Netanyahu’s ability to shift the political conversation as a core strength.

Bushinsky noted that Netanyahu rebranded the failures of the October 7 period as part of a War of Redemption. He argued that competitors lacked the experience or resolve to handle the situation. Roni Rimon, who managed Netanyahu’s 2009 campaign, called the election result a success given the difficult circumstances. The opposition faces its own hurdles, including the need to partner with Arab parties. Netanyahu’s camp has worked to delegitimize Israel’s Palestinian minority, making that partnership difficult.

Netanyahu’s political survival is rooted in a messaging strategy that has evolved over four decades. He often uses simple slogans to frame complex issues. In 1996, he defeated Shimon Peres with the slogan that Peres would divide Jerusalem. In 2019, he used the phrase Bibi or Tibi to contrast himself with Ahmad Tibi, a Palestinian politician. For this election, the slogan was Yamin o Falestin, meaning the right or Palestine.

His narrative also draws on personal history, including being shot in combat and losing his brother during a hostage rescue. He has framed these events as stories of bravery and sacrifice. A person who accompanied him on the campaign trail described him as highly adaptable, noting that he convinces himself of his own persona. Israeli media have referred to him as a magician or Houdini, referencing his ability to avoid political defeat. Bushinsky said that while the escape artist Harry Houdini died after letting his guard down, Netanyahu has not yet been caught off guard.

The next phase involves coalition talks. Netanyahu’s opponents have assembled a diverse slate of leaders, including a military chief new to politics. However, they have not secured a majority. Netanyahu remains in power while working to build a governing alliance, a process that may take time given the fragmented results.