Pew Research finds 60% of US voters sit in messy political middle

A new analysis by the Pew Research Center estimates that approximately 60% of the American electorate belongs to a political middle that defies simple partisan labels. The non-partisan organization categorizes voters into nine distinct groups based on values and attitudes rather than just party affiliation. This finding challenges the common narrative that the country is split evenly between two ideologically rigid camps.

In January, researchers observed a dynamic between Shanna Berry and Alma Ong, two friends who are often cautious about discussing politics. Berry, a retired hairdresser and Air Force veteran in her early 50s, supports President Trump. Ong, also in her early 50s, is more liberal and grew up in London. When asked about the United States' capture of Venezuela's former president Nicolas Maduro, Berry initially hesitated before sharing her views.

Berry described the end of the Venezuelan regime as necessary, though she questioned the legalities of the operation and its connection to oil access. Ong, a Buddhist who does not support the current president, reacted with surprise. She stated that she agreed with everything Berry had said, a response that contradicted their initial assumptions about their political distance. This interaction illustrates a gap between perceived and actual political agreement.

Kristin Laurin, a psychology professor at the University of British Columbia, noted that the exchange matches existing research on polarization. She explained that people often avoid political conversation due to a fear of conflict. This avoidance leads individuals to overestimate their differences from others. Laurin stated that politicians and social media platforms often amplify rage to drive engagement, making perceived polarization seem far greater than reality.

The April indictment of former FBI director James Comey highlighted this overlap. The Department of Justice charged Comey with posting a photo of seashells that constituted a death threat against the president. While Democrats were appalled by the charge, many conservatives also expressed support for his right to free speech. Jonathan Turley, a constitutional law professor at George Washington University Law School, remarked that the shell art case felt like a parallel universe to him.

Stan Fletcher, a restaurateur near the Chesapeake Bay who voted for Trump three times, argued that most Americans are moderates. He stated that 95% of the population falls under a bell curve of moderation, while public discourse focuses on the extremes on both sides. Fletcher noted that no one should be indicted for their opinion, a view shared by people across the partisan divide.

Pew identifies one such moderate group as the Pragmatic and Polite Right. Within this group, 56% are Republicans or Republican-leaning, while 37% are Democrats or Democratic-leaning. This demographic places a high value on civility and holds conservative views on economics but more moderate views on race and immigration. Jocelyn Kiley, who leads politics research at Pew, said the messy middle is larger than the ideological extremes.

Groups Pew labels the No Apologies Right and the Faith First Conservatives make up just 21% of the population. Kiley said political division is real, but there is significant nuance underneath the surface labels. The center is larger and more diverse than many Americans realize.